onsdag, april 23

Badebukser eller termotøj ?

Ja, hvad skal man investere i? Nu er vi blevet tudet ørerne fulde i årevis om, at vores uansvarlige omgang med firehjulstrækkere og charterferier til Mallorca uomgængeligt vil føre til Global Opvarmning™ eller i det mindste til det lidt mere uforpligtende Klimaforandringer.

Men nu advarer den australskfødte geofysiker og sol-ekspert Phil Chapman om, at manglende solplet-aktivitet nemt kan føre til en lille istid:
THE scariest photo I have seen on the internet is www.spaceweather.com, where you will find a real-time image of the sun from the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory, located in deep space at the equilibrium point between solar and terrestrial gravity.

What is scary about the picture is that there is only one tiny sunspot.

All four agencies that track Earth's temperature (the Hadley Climate Research Unit in Britain, the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies in New York, the Christy group at the University of Alabama, and Remote Sensing Systems Inc in California) report that it cooled by about 0.7C in 2007. This is the fastest temperature change in the instrumental record and it puts us back where we were in 1930. If the temperature does not soon recover, we will have to conclude that global warming is over.

There is also plenty of anecdotal evidence that 2007 was exceptionally cold. It snowed in Baghdad for the first time in centuries, the winter in China was simply terrible and the extent of Antarctic sea ice in the austral winter was the greatest on record since James Cook discovered the place in 1770.

This is where SOHO comes in. The sunspot number follows a cycle of somewhat variable length, averaging 11 years. The most recent minimum was in March last year. The new cycle, No.24, was supposed to start soon after that, with a gradual build-up in sunspot numbers.

It didn't happen. The first sunspot appeared in January this year and lasted only two days. A tiny spot appeared last Monday but vanished within 24 hours. Another little spot appeared this Monday. Pray that there will be many more, and soon.

The next descent into an ice age is inevitable but may not happen for another 1000 years. On the other hand, it must be noted that the cooling in 2007 was even faster than in typical glacial transitions. If it continued for 20 years, the temperature would be 14C cooler in 2027.

We cannot really know, but my guess is that the odds are at least 50-50 that we will see significant cooling rather than warming in coming decades.

Desværre vil han næppe blive taget alvorligt, for, som han selv nævner:
It will be difficult for people to face the truth when their reputations, careers, government grants or hopes for social change depend on global warming.

Måske er det tid til at skifte sparepæren ud med en ordentlig motherf*cker af en 1000 watt'er.

(Via Andrew Bolt)

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